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There is a more recent version of this article. View article
history.

Japan to Form Earthquake Warning
System

1 day ago

Japan
to Get Quake Warning System

1 day ago

» Japan to Form Earthquake Warning System «

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Aug 23, 2007 4:35 PM (1 day ago)

By CARL FREIRE, AP

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(AP Photo/Koji Sasahara)
Akihiko
Sawamura, a field engineer of Meisei Electric Co. in Yokohama, near
Tokyo, looks at a monitor screen indicating a strong level 5
earthquake will hit Tokyo in 38 seconds during his demonstration of
his company's QCAST, nowcast earthquake information system, that is
used at the Japan Meteorological Agency to give users early warnings
of earthquakes, on Monday, April 17, 2006. In an ambitious attempt
at protecting large populations from seismic disaster, Japan's
Meteorological Agency and national broadcaster are teaming up to
alert the public of earthquakes as much as 30 seconds before they
hit, or at least before they can bring their full force down on
populated areas. The warning system, the first of its kind in the
world, will launch in October, 2007.

TOKYO (Map,
News)
- It's still beyond the reach of science to predict exactly when an
earthquake will strike, but Japan will soon get the next best thing
- televised warnings that come before anyone feels the ground
shake.

Japan's Meteorological Agency and national broadcaster are
teaming up to alert the public of earthquakes as much as 30 seconds
before they hit, or at least before they can bring their full force
down on populated areas.

The system - the first of its kind in the world - does not
predict quakes, but officials say it can give people enough time to
get away from windows that could shatter, or to turn off ovens and
prevent fires from razing homes. And in one of the world's most
earthquake-prone countries, every second counts.

"If we can give people enough time to take even a few steps to
protect themselves before the shaking starts, it could help reduce
injuries and damage," said agency spokesman Makoto Saito.

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The warnings, to begin in October, will be based on data provided
by the Meteorological Agency, which maintains a network of sensors
deep underground that estimate the intensity of a quake as soon as
the ground ruptures. Alarms can go out before the shaking starts
because there is a lag between the time it takes for different
seismic waves to travel to the surface.

Japan, which sits atop four tectonic plates, has been hit by 83
earthquakes strong enough to cause injury since March 1996,
including one last month that killed 11 people and caused a fire and
small radiation leak at a nuclear power plant.

The warning system works by detecting primary waves, which spread
from the epicenter of a quake and travel faster than the destructive
shear waves. When waves of a certain intensity are detected, the
alarms are set off. The national broadcaster, NHK, will relay them
almost instantaneously to its television and radio audiences.

The agency started issuing warnings last August to more than 500
organizations such as power companies and train operators.

The system is not perfect. Lightning or other interference can
cause false alarms, for example, and early warning won't work for
areas directly above the ruptured fault because the two waves would
be nearly simultaneous. And residents would have to be watching TV
or listening to the radio to get an alert.

Still, the agency says the system helped it issue a tsunami alert
for a magnitude-6.9 earthquake in northern Japan this March two
minutes faster than its old early warning system would have. The
agency also was able to put out a warning ahead of last month's
magnitude-6.8 quake.

How the public will react has been a concern.

"Chaos and injuries could result, for example, if an urgent
earthquake warning is sent to a facility with large numbers of
customers and a crush forms at the exits as people rush to get out,"
a meteorological agency study group said in a report last year.

The warnings, it was decided, must come with explanations of what
people should do - stop cars and elevators, get away from things
that can fall and, most of all, protect their heads.

"We realized the warnings won't work if confusion is the result,"
said Saito. "The public needs to be educated about how and how not
to react."

Since early last month, NHK has begun preparing Japan for the
alerts, carrying promotional spots accompanied by skits that show
how to respond.

Officials say the system may serve as a model for others.

"A lot of the injuries in an earthquake come from secondary
damage, like fires started from open gas lines," said Barry
Drummond, who oversees seismic monitoring for Geoscience Australia.
"If you've got enough time to shut the gas valve, you're that much
further ahead."

Small-scale warning systems exist in parts of Mexico, Taiwan and
Turkey. In the United States, commercially available,
battery-powered seismic gadgets can warn a limited region, while
seismologists at the University of California, Berkeley, are working
on a system inspired in part by Japan's.

"The implementation in Japan is most important to us as a test of
the concept," said Richard Allen, who heads the group. "We are
particularly interested to see how the public react to the
information and (who) starts to make use of the information and
how."

Copyright 2007 The Associated
Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published,
broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

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